NFL Week 7 : Thursday Night Football preview – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals betting odds, expert picks, player props, and trends. Find out why analysts expect a low-scoring grind and value in Steelers’ rushers.
NFL Week 7: Steelers vs Bengals – Rivalry Renewed
Week 7 of the NFL season opens with an intense AFC North rivalry clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers enter this matchup riding high on a three-game winning streak, solidifying their top spot in the division as the odds-on favorite at -160. Meanwhile, the Bengals are desperate to break free from a four-game losing skid, sitting with long-shot odds of +1600 for the division.
The stakes are high as both teams know how much a divisional victory matters. With cold Cincinnati weather setting the stage, this Thursday Night Football matchup looks like a scrappy defensive battle rather than an offensive showcase.
Game Outlook and Analyst Predictions
According to ESPN analysts Pamela Maldonado, Matt Bowen, and Eric Moody, the smart bet this week points toward the Under 44.5 total points. Both teams have struggled to generate explosive plays, preferring slow-paced, conservative football that limits tempo.
Pamela Maldonado explained that Cincinnati under Joe Flacco has averaged only 4.9 yards per passing attempt and attempted just 16 rushing plays in their previous game. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s defense leads the league in combined sacks and takeaways, exactly the kind of stat line that disrupts offensive rhythm and shortens possessions.
She predicts: even if the Steelers score their typical 24 points, the Bengals’ short-passing offense will struggle to keep pace. Expect long, grind-it-out drives with plenty of punts rather than big plays.
Key Player Props and Odds Breakdown
Passing Props:
| Player | Yards (O/U) | TDs (O/U) |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 239.5 (-115/-115) | 1.5 (+150/-200) |
| Aaron Rodgers | 219.5 (-110/-120) | 1.5 (-130/Even) |
Both quarterbacks are expected to keep the ball short and safe. Flacco’s passing yard line suggests moderate efficiency but limited big-play potential. Rodgers, meanwhile, has looked sharp this season, but with Pittsburgh leaning toward a run-first approach, his passing volume might remain modest.
Rushing Props: The Steelers’ Ground Game Advantage
Matt Bowen points out that Jaylen Warren, averaging 49.0 rushing yards over his last three games, is poised for a bigger performance. The Bengals’ run defense has been weak all year, allowing 135.7 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL).
This sets up perfectly for Pittsburgh to rely on its physical ground attack. Bowen recommends taking the Over 49.5 yards for Warren, who could easily surpass that total against a worn-down Cincinnati front.
Eric Moody echoes this sentiment, noting that the Steelers’ offensive line ranks 13th in run block win rate, facing a Bengals’ unit that has surrendered the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
While Kenneth Gainwell had only six carries last week, Moody expects him to play a larger role, potentially surpassing 10 rushing attempts in a run-heavy game plan designed for early clock control.
Receiving Props: Cincinnati’s Hopes Through the Air
| Player | Yards (O/U) | To Score TD |
|---|---|---|
| Ja’Marr Chase | 73.5 (-115/-115) | +150 |
| Tee Higgins | 47.5 (-115/-115) | +225 |
| DK Metcalf | 59.5 (-120/-110) | +145 |
If the Bengals are going to stay competitive, it will depend heavily on wideout Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. However, Joe Flacco’s limited arm strength and Pittsburgh’s fierce pressure could suppress their usual numbers. Chase may still find opportunities thanks to quick slants and bubble screens, but Higgins’ deep-threat value could be minimal this week.
Why the Under Is the Smart Bet
Nearly every factor aligns for a low-scoring, defensive slugfest.
- Both teams prefer short, safe plays that eat clock.
- Pittsburgh’s defense thrives on turnovers and sacks.
- Cincinnati’s offense under Flacco favors conservative throws and minimal risk.
The total line has risen slightly from 43 to 44.5, but even with that adjustment, the matchup still points toward the Under. Historically, Joe Flacco’s teams have hit the Under consistently when he’s a home underdog—17-3 in his career in such situations.
Betting Trends to Know
- The Steelers are 3-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last three games and 4-0 ATS against the Bengals since 2023.
- The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their past five games as underdogs.
- Cincinnati’s past eight short-rest games have all gone Over, but this trend may not hold against Pittsburgh’s elite defense.
- The Under is 17-3 in games where Joe Flacco is a home underdog.
Prediction
This AFC North clash promises to be gritty and physical — the kind of game that defines Pittsburgh football. Expect the Steelers to pound the run, use short passes to control tempo, and rely on their dominant defense to force turnovers.
- Under 44.5 Total Points
- Jaylen Warren Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
- Kenneth Gainwell Over 10 Rushing Attempts (+325)
A true Thursday Night grind awaits fans — and smart bettors — who know that sometimes, the best excitement in football isn’t a shootout, but a strategic, hard-fought defensive battle between rivals.
